1. Market analysis
(1) First of all: The choice of stocks is best to know the stocks in life, such as East Ejiao, Shuanghui Development, Illi, Mengniu, Bank , Moutai, Vivi, Guangming, FAW, etc. Because they can observe their sales and market changes in life, it is easy Understand their annual performance and future development. For example, Yili can chat with the waiters of the supermarket sales, to check what the characteristics of various brands of milk, which one consumers like to buy, which brands they recommend, but it is recommended to ask more about a few different supermarkets and and small store. In addition, you can also stand in the supermarket and observe consumers' baskets. What items are installed in the cart (for example, which brand of milk is installed).
If you find a certain product, you can ask friends and relatives to ask their views on this product. The significance of this point is that when the company has bad news, you can determine whether this bad news can destroy the consumer's demand for enterprise products. Enterprises have great defense capabilities. Like the Illi executives in 2004. The negative example is the light emulsion. After the milk scandal occurs, the stock price has a panic and plummeted. Why not buy it, because it is not the point to pay attention to the sudden milk problem. Undaled by Yili and Mengniu.
(2) Followed by one step forward: The people think that it is enough to have a brand, which is wrong. Marketing master Cottler has talked about brand status and brand vitality. A product with brand status refers to the products that everyone have heard, familiar products, such as Vivi soy milk, brain platinum, and Xia Xin electronics. And the product with brand vitality refers to this product that can meet the needs of consumers. Whether Xia Xin's mobile phone can meet consumers' greater needs. If Xia Xin's mobile phone is not enough to be ZTE, Nokia is famous, and the price is similar, Xia Whether the new quality or performance guarantee can be provided, if not, it cannot meet the needs of consumers. Brain platinum is often used for gifts, but whether it can meet people's needs as a health product. This kind of commodity target market is a group of gift giving, or a group that wants to make "children smart". The relationship between brand status and brand vitality can be summarized as follows: The product with brand status but no brand vitality will eventually be eliminated. Products without brand status but brand vitality can be close to consumers through marketing methods, advertising, etc., so as to improve product sales and become a strong brand. It can be seen that the most important thing in the brand is to meet the inherent needs of consumers.
Cartler also depicts good brands to meet the "emotion" needs of consumers. For example, Mercedes -Benz's nobleness represents identity. BMW's feeling of flying is noble, and the chic group is satisfied. Yilimon milk tastes, the milk source is good, the quality is recognized by people, it is rest assured, feels healthy, and close to the needs of life. When Yili and Mengniu attacked milk yogurt strongly, cheese, light was a bit standing, because consumers' recognition of Yilimon milk was brought into the original advantage area -milk yogurt. The companies that shareholders want to invest will always remember that they are not just a brand, but this brand brings consumers demand. It is best to have a certain degree of spiritual and emotional needs. A strong culture, such as Beijing's Quanjude.
(3) One step deeper, competition: steel, rice, cement and other products, most of them do not consider their brands, but consider their prices, so these products have low added value, profits of profits, profits weak. Some industries, like the steel industry, entered the weak barriers and exited the barriers, so it is easy to cause fierce wars, leading to obvious imbalance in supply and demand, and obvious periodicity. This part can be refer to Buffett books. I. I want to give a little important view that it is best not to buy a market share very much. It is certainly good without competition, but if the company's original environment is a weak environment, what will happen to strong competitors. Therefore, on December 11, 2005, when the country entered the domestic express delivery in the country's comprehensive opening up of foreign express delivery companies, and the freight forwarding logistics industry, I was worried about the development of foreign transportation. Another view is that there are appropriate competitors. For example, Illi and Mengniu, East Ejiao and Blood, Coca -Cola and Pepsi (mostly in an oligopoly industry), mutual benign competition can expand the attractiveness of consumers by similar products, because the advertisements of one of the companies can also drive Consumers are attracted to the entire industry. Vivienan milk powder, the market share is more than 80 %. Due to the lack of development of products that expand profit margins, the introduction of competitors, resulting in consumers did not pay attention to the soy milk industry. In the end, too fierce is not a good thing. For example, the steel industry, and interesting examples are Hong Kong's telecommunications industry. There are too many telecommunications companies in Hong Kong. Unlike China, there are only one or two large, mobile and Unicom. There are seven or eight telecommunications companies in Hong Kong because of mutual exclusion of profits, which has made less funds invest in scientific research. Therefore, Hong Kong's telecommunications industry is not as good as domestic. Summary, there is no competitive industry environment, you need to consider whether this environment can be maintained. Enterprises with good competitors are worth investing.
The first three points should be well combined when investing. For example, companies with good competitors are worth investing. Through market surveys, companies that invest in the investment are advancing with competitors, rather than being weakened. There are certain emotional factors or culture.
, understand data (1) History reinstatement growth rate per share When referring to the growth rate of earnings per share, it should be given red shares and reinforcement stocks. Consider going in. The dividend (if it is not too big), the distribution and the income should not consider the growth of historical composite earnings per share. Then consider the growth of ten and five years. Some companies have not been listed for a long time, such as Gree, from the end of 1996, to the end of 2004, for eight years, from the increase of the stock investors, the share capital held by the original shareholders has increased by three times. In 2004, the income per share was 0.78, so in the eight years, your original investment inspected the increase in corporate performance to 1.89 times, and similarly calculated that the growth in the past five years was 1.64 times. And when calculating, we should pay attention to whether the revenue of historical reinstatement grows steadily, and it is recommended to invest in stable growth of enterprises. Whether the growth of each share revenue stable has shown many properties, such as the nature of the industry. Whether the industry cycle is short, Baosteel is only available in 2000. Even if the growth is high, the inspection time should be more expensive, and the historical performance of other peers steel production should be added. Whether the income growth per share is rapid, it also shows the nature of the industry and enterprises. On the one hand, for the industry, a lot of funds are required to maintain old equipment and updates. For example, aviation aircraft and tankers, even if they are not used, they need a lot of expenses to maintain, so retaining funds cannot be used to continuously expand production. On the other hand, for enterprises, there are no high -value products (out of scale), poor competitiveness, no additional profits, and no extensive funds to develop new products and diffusion. They can only meet the demand for funding by increasing. Similar to calculating Gree, it can be calculated that the East Ejiao has a growth of 4.36 times in ten years. The growth of 1997 to 2002 was 1.85 times the initial, and the increase in the past five years was 2.34 times. Kelong lost money for five and ten years, and Vivi fell to 0.77 times in five years.
Summary, these historical performance reflect the competitiveness and industry nature of the enterprise, and as Geham said, the management ability is also reflected in the historical performance of the enterprise. If we can find 10 years of growth to the original 4 times, and the growth of more than two times in five years, then we meet the goal. Coupled with the underestimation, the income in 5 years may not only be twice the original.
Under normal circumstances, we can only conduct technical analysis of US stocks. B fundra which analysis is very unrealistic for Chinese retail investors. I do n’t know what software you use. The great wisdom I use can call KDJ. Most of the indicators can be used. Except for the transaction volume, the US stocks have no transaction display, or it is inaccurate.
The analysis of U.S. stocks and Chinese stocks is the same. If you know the analysis of Chinese shares, it will analyze US stocks. In contrast, if you will not analyze Chinese stocks, there will be no public US stock analysis
In fact, like A shares, read some books, if you don’t know where KDJ is, you can download a software instructions, which has software fast functions inside
Like A shares. Look at the level of dynamic P / E ratio.
Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *
Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment.