5 thoughts on “How to judge whether the bull market has arrived”

  1. Hello, judging some of the basis for the bull market:
    The average daily turnover
    The turnover is the most direct indicator of the hotness of the stock market, and it is also the most important criterion for judging the bull market.
    The bull market will inevitably mean that the entry of incremental funds and the popularity of market transactions.
    The people rushed to buy a lot when they rose well, and the transaction was very deserted when it fell much.
    The days of sky -high price, land price, chasing and falling, high buying and low selling.
    This is the human nature in the bones.
    I we can use the average daily turnover as an important indicator for judging the bull market.
    This refers to the average daily turnover within a certain period of time. The turnover of a certain day is affected by many accidental factors, but if the average turnover of a period of time breaks through a certain value, we can say that the bull market is coming.
    What is the value of this value?
    It we see the average daily turnover during a round of bull market.
    I. I counted the CSI Circulation Index (including all A -share trading stocks). From December 8, 2014, the bull market was launched, and on June 29, 2015, the most severe share disaster on June 29, 2015. , For: 1050 billion.
    and the craziest three months (March 16th to June 15th) in 2015, the average daily turnover reached nearly 1400 billion yuan.
    Therefore, we can use the turnover of 10 billion as the turnover of the beef.
    The average transaction turnover of CSI in the past 20 days is only close to 580 billion yuan, which is nearly doubled from 10 billion.
    and in recent years, due to the continuous listing of new shares, the average market value of CSI's circulation has increased from 51 trillion at the time to 65 trillion.
    , that is to say, the market volume has increased, and it is also 10 billion yuan. The market transaction activity that shows is far less than a few years ago.
    So the average daily turnover of 580 billion yuan is far from the bull market.
    The daily average transition rate
    is as mentioned earlier. Because the market volume becomes larger, the meaning of the same turnover also changes, so it will be a bit distorted.
    So we can use the average daily turnover rate to judge the popularity of the market.
    The transition rate represents the proportion of stock trading volume for a period of time.
    The same way, I counted the CSI circulation index. From December 8, 2014 to June 29, 2015, the average daily turnover rate was: 2.2%.
    and the craziest three months (March 16th to June 15th) in 2015, the average daily turnover rate was: 2.7%.
    and the average daily turnover rate of CSI circulation in the past 20 days is only 0.9%.
    If we use the 2%turn as a bull and bear division point, this is still double the distance.
    The bull market is far away.
    The value -based margin margin balance
    M n Due to the small scale of China's securities margin business, the balance of the two financing is mainly the financing balance.
    The financing balance refers to the person who borrowed money from the securities firm, and how much money he borrowed did not pay it back. In other words, how much money in the stock market is borrowed from securities firms.
    Is all know that those who dare to borrow money stocks are the people who dare to adventure the most.
    The people often enter the market first.
    The interest of borrowing money is very high. The more people who borrow money stocks, the greater the amount borrowed, indicating that everyone feels that the market can make a lot of money in the short term, otherwise the interest can not be eaten.
    The most adventurous people enter the market to gamble, and those who borrow money stocks are not afraid to enter the venue. This indicator can well illustrate the popularity of the market.
    I I have counted the balance of Liang Rong from December 8, 2014
    2015, the bull market peak, and the balance of the two merits was close to 2300 billion yuan.
    and the current balance balance has just exceeded 10 billion.
    of course, after the stock disaster, the limitation of financing tightened.
    If we use 1500 billion yuan as the boundary line, we are currently 10 billion yuan, which is still 50%away.
    The increase since the low point
    I have said that to confirm that the bull market is coming, at least there must be mainstream indexes (Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, Shenzhen Composite Index, CSI 300, CSI 500, and GEM Index. ), Compared to the previous low, rising by more than 50%.
    It strictly increases 100%.
    It 20%~ 30%of the stock market is too normal. This level of "bull market" may go through 5, 6, 7, 8 times a year, which is too cheap.
    Let's take a look at the increase of the mainstream indexes at present:
    The relatively low increase in the relative low of the GEM index of the small and medium -sized board index, which is a little bit of the bull market.
    But compared to A shares, the two are small because of the small coverage of ingredients, and the representativeness is relatively poor.
    and my own requirements for the bull market are relatively strict, at least the index is relatively low.
    So the kind of bull market in my heart has not yet come.
    The number of new investors
    is the number of new account opening.
    The bull market means people watching outside the field running. That means the surge in account opening.
    It we look at the peak of the bull market in 2015, the number of new account openings every week:
    It can be seen that the number of new investors at the peak of the bull market has reached nearly 1.7 million.
    1.7 million stock accounts every week.
    and now the number of new account opening every week has just exceeded 300,000.
    The bull market is here. How can the number of new account opening every week also have to exceed the high in 2016 and 2017.
    2016 high point was 600,000, and 560,000 in 2017.
    is just over 300,000, and the bull market is far away.
    but the number of new account opening has shown an upward trend, you can continue to observe.
    The market began to eliminate low -priced stocks
    Wose a bull market when it comes to a bull market, the market will have a phenomenon of extinguishing low -priced stocks (such as less than 5 yuan), low price -earnings ratios, and breaking net stocks.
    First of all, because the bull market has more funds, the valuation center of the entire market must be raised up.
    It is many new investors who have entered the market. If you don't know the situation, you will buy those stocks with low prices and low valuations. Those "cheap" are good. (相信我的读者都不会这样)rn我们来看2015年3月牛市如火如荼时,低价股、低PE股、破净股的数量和占比,与如今的对比:r N can be seen that the number and proportion of low -priced stocks and low -estimate stocks in bull markets are far less than now.
    Especially the number of stocks below 5 yuan and the net stocks are almost eliminated.
    Is the attention of people's attention to stocks
    has a paragraph, which is the aunt who collects parking fees at the door of the brokerage company. It is based on observing the flow of the securities firms.
    Although it is a paragraph, people's attention to stocks is indeed a good indicator to judge Niu Bear.
    Mi people who start talking about stocks are getting more than those around, and the bull market may come.
    . When colleagues who originally did not buy stocks and the aunts of the vegetable market recommended stocks, the bull market may reach the top.
    The few people now go to offline brokers to open an account or trade. After the Internet developed, people's offline activities have also decreased a lot compared to before.
    we moved more lives to the Internet. The attention of everyone on the Internet can respond to the situation of the bull and bear in the stock market well.
    Compared with the people who could only observe around, the Internet can give us a broader and comprehensive viewing perspective.
    The last
    For judging the bull market, it is not necessary to meet all the above indicators and situations in order to confirm the bull market.
    , the more the above situations occur at the same time, the greater the probability of the bull market.
    The most important of which is the indicator of turnover, the rate of renewal, and the number of new account opening. It directly reflects the popularity of the market.
    It special attention is that, compared to the absolute value of the indicator, its trend is more important.
    If an indicator breaks through the critical value and continues to rise.
    . For example, the number of new account opening every week exceeds 600,000, and then continues to grow every week, showing a trend, the probability of the bull market is very high.
    Risk revealing: This information does not constitute any investment suggestions. Investors should not replace their independent judgments or make decisions based on such information, which does not constitute any trading operations and does not guarantee any income. If you operate yourself, please pay attention to position control and risk control.

  2. The basis for judging whether the bull market is coming, from the following four points:
    The first condition
    The first condition: daily K line, the index is higher than the annual line and the annual line. Because the annual line represents the average price trend, once the directional changes occur, it means that it can last a year or even a year. This is in line with the time cycle conditions that the bull market time cycle must have. Thousands of gold stock funds
    It the above conditions also have a characteristic, which is based on the Shenzhen index and the Shanghai Stock Exchange basically formed synchronization, that is, the most basic condition of the bull market has been completed.
    The second condition
    The second condition: the season K line, the 5th quarter moving moving a 10th season moving average and the 10th quarter moving average. Whether it is Shanghai Stock Exchange or Deep Certificate, except for the first bull market, the rest meet this condition.
    The above -mentioned conditions, both in the Shenzhen Certificate Market, both in the deep index, the GEM, and the small and medium -sized boards, but there is still a lack of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
    The third condition
    In month K line, the basic 3 wave rising requires the closing price of a certain K line than the closing price of the previous 21 K -line (TD wave 3 waves rising quantitative conditions) Essence
    Since the closing of the K -line in January 2020 has been completed, the above conditions, Shenzhen's refers to the GEM and small and medium -sized boards have been in line, but the Shanghai Stock Exchange has not been completed.
    The fourth condition
    The fourth condition: On the month K line, you need to meet the yang line ultra -yin line and yang cover the yin volume (at least three consecutive yang), and both conditions must be met.
    The so -called yang line ultra -yin line refers to the number of moon and yang lines that must exceed the number of the previous moon yin line, and the price is higher than the highest price of the previous yin line; Statistics with a turnover rate) exceed the volume of the moon yin line, and the quantity must be covered with the front volume (the bottom volume over the top volume).

  3. In the stock market, we are used to the continuous rise of stocks in the stock market.
    This is called the bull market.
    Conversely, the bear market market known as a short market seems to be ordinary and continuously declined.
    The concept of the cowboy market, many people will be curious. Is the current market be a bear market or a bull market?
    This link below, immediately tell you the answer: Exclusive investment calendar in the Shanghai and Shenzhen cities, master the latest first -hand information

    . What method is used to infer whether it is a bear market or a bull market?
    It wants to see whether it belongs to a bear market or a bull market. It can be analyzed from two perspectives. In fact, it is generally divided into the basics and technical surfaces.
    First of all, we can judge the market from the fundamental face. The fundamental performance is the operating trend of the macroeconomic and the operation of the listed company. Usually, it is enough to read the industry research report: [Stock Market Barometer] The first -hand information of the financial market information Broadcasting

    Secondly, from a technical point of view, the combination of packets such as the replacement rate, quantity ratio and commissioner can be included in our reference range to observe the relevant market conditions.
    For example, if it is currently a bull market and buying far more than those who sell, the rising trend of the K -line chart of most stocks will be very obvious. Conversely, if it is currently a bear market, the person who buys stocks sells stocks without selling stocks, then the decline in the K -line chart of most individual stocks will increase.
    . How to judge the turning point of the cowboy market?
    It if the bull market is about to end, the market will be stuck at this time, so it is likely to be a high point of the stock at this time. When the bear market is about to end The best time to make a lot of money.
    So, as long as you can grasp the height turning point of the bear cattle, you can buy it at the low position and sell it at the high position, and you can earn your own pocket in the middle difference! I want to know where there are many ways to turn the Bull and Bear Turning Point. It is recommended to use the following turning point to capture artifacts, one -click to obtain the time to buy and sell: [AI auxiliary decision -making] Capture of the sale and sale of the artifact
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  4. Recently, Da A has risen one after another, and has stood 3100 points. Many brokers, big V, and media have shouted that the bull market is coming. Is the bull market come? How can I confirm the bull market?
    n00:00 / 03: 0770% shortcut keys to describe space: Play / suspend ESC: exit full screen ↑: increased by 10% ↓: reduced volume decrease by 10% →: single fast forward 5 seconds studio Here you can drag no longer appear in the player settings to reopen the small window shortcut key description

  5. The benevolent see the wise
    . My point of view is as follows:
    The capital market (including the stock market, the bond market, etc.) is an important part of the economy. Prevention of previous years. Otherwise it is difficult to succeed.
    For example, the Chinese stock market wants to leave in 2015, but did not go. In my opinion, in fact, with the addition of the RMB to the SDR, the renminbi has become the favorable expectation of the international reserve currency. According to economic history, the historic appreciation of any country's currency is accompanied by a round of the big bull market in the stock market. In 2015, the cattle did not get up. To a large extent, although the renminbi took a historic step, it failed to significantly appreciate it.

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